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What
is an Exponential Growth model? What is the impact
of the Exponential Growth for our environment?
What is the impact of the Exponential Growth to
the Business?
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Posted:
Dec
2008 |
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Nothing
is constant in the universe, since everything
changes. Everything changes in our world,
regardless does it goes up or down. Every
occurrence in our surrounding is changing and
interacting between each other. |
For
example, if the price of the oil goes up, than it is to
be expected that people will be less eager to travel. On
the other hand, if there is a limited time discount in
the nearby grocery, it is likely that the number of
shoppers will be increased.
So,
we see the examples
of growth or decline all
around us. The growth is inevitable fact of the modern
civilization. As we have the population growth, consumption
expands, and demand for new commodities expands. But for
how long the population growth can happen. Definitely that grow
can assure for some time, but the question is what rate
of growth will occur?
Let
assume that the growth of population in some market is
8% annually and that the demand for food, electricity
etc.
is also increasing by 8%
annually. This population growth sounds
as moderate growth. But for how long population growth can
continue. Considering the fact that the rate is 8% this
can look as modest population growth rate. But the following
calculation shows that things are not that simple. If
the starting population is 100k, than the annual change
is:
Year
1
100 + 8% = 108
Year
2
108 + 8% = 116,6
Year
3
116,6 + 8% = 126
..............................................
Year
10
199,9 + 8% = 215,9
This
rate of growth is called Exponential Growth. The
exponential growth occurs
when the growth rate is a mathematical function
proportional to the function's current value.
This function is called Exponential Function.
Now
we see that the population growth was more than double in only
10 years. This means that the growing population will
need more than double houses, food, parking space, etc.
Is our community ready to withstand exponential
population growth rate? Is
anybody ready to admit that annual population growth of 8% is
moderate growth? What will happen to our city if the
population continues to expand with exponential growth
rate?
If
the current population growth rate on our planet continues at
exponential growth rate it means that in less than 2,5 millenniums there
will be one person per each square meter of dry land.
Is
this going to happen? It cannot happen, due to the
carrying capacity of our planet. Simply, the exponential
population growth will finally slow down, or even decline much sooner. Simply, the
exponential function is too demanding in every aspect.
Every value that is subject to exponential growth will
soon reach the capacity limitation.
The
mathematical graph usually shows exponential function heading
almost vertically at the end of the graph. But in the
real world, exponential growth graph needs to go somewhere. This
usually means that when it approaches to the environment
capacity, the curve will change its direction. It can
even go down if it comes to the ceiling of the
environment capacity.
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Lets
try to apply the same analogy of exponential growth to the business
environment. The goal of every company is the profitable
existence in the market. In order to provide profit, the
company needs to have a certain amount of units sold.
Basically, to stay profitable the company needs to be
well above the profitability breakeven point. Since
there are competitors all around, the company needs to
fights for its place. It needs to capture as bigger part
of the market, in order to be on the safe side. So the
company needs the growth.
But
for how long the company can grow by the exponential
growth rate? Actually, for how
long the whole market can grow by the exponential
growth rate? If the goal of the
company is the double-digit growth, then the
question is for how long the exponential growth can happen? If
the company plan to grow 10% annually that means
that it will double it's sales volume in 7 years.
What if the population that consumes the product of
this company does not double in 10 years? That can mean that
the company will have to make their consumers to
make buy and consume more, or company need sto find
a way to steal from
competition. Ideally, the company should do both.
But
what happens if the company hits the ceiling of the
market carrying capacity? In this case the
exponential growth can be
a real threat to any company, since the market will
be saturated eventually.
If the company invests in the expansion of the
capacities, in order to follow up the sales plan
with double-digit growth, than these capacities can
stay underutilized at
some point, after the exponential growth have
saturated the market. Since
capacities are very costly, the only solution is
termination of many employment contracts and closing
down the production facilities.
Every
company needs to head for the growth. This or the
other way, it turns that this plan is always long
term exponential growth. But in
reality, too ambition and too aggressive growth plan
can bring benefit on the short run, but on the long
run it can harm the business of the company. In more
drastically examples the chain reaction on saturated
market can hit many industries at the same time, as
a result of cumulative exponential growth and the
market saturation.
So
any business planning needs to take into serious
consideration the danger that Exponential Growth can
bring.
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